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VEHICLE POPULATION GROWTH PROJECTIONS

Ref. (19) of Barth paper.

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TABLE 5-1. Purchases of Automobiles, 1950,
1955, 1960, and Projections to 2000

(Milion vehicles)

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1950
1955
1960
Low
1970
1980
1990
2000
Medium
1970
1980
1990
2000
High
1970
1980
1990
2000

3.1

6.7 9.6 13.6 19.5

9.8 14.0 19.7 28.8

6.1
9.3

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1940

1960 1980 2000 : Figure 5-1. Slocks of owner-operated vehicles, hicle ownership, and vehicle miles traveled. 1949 1960, and Medium projections for 1980 and 2000

Sources: Historical data from Appendix Table AS-1. Pro Jections are based on live-year averages from Table AS-3, although only the ion-year intervals have been reproduccd; discrepancies in addition are due to rounding.

Ref.:

Landsberg, H, H., et. al. "Resources in Americas Futuri
Johns Hopkins Press (Baltimore) 1963 pp. 132.

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y fri treh ornenier.sc as to avoid unnecessary varietiens snyar-tcyear trends, these projecticas have dead roindet to the revest ":2:1." or the unit einleyed.

3 Excities er.ed forces overseas. Dosrivat free s. fo. 1$Serie: D, Coled duqust 6, 1970, Jure of the Census, V.S. Deneri seat or cerce.

y Recorded Sheures so shown for 1967 through 1970.

ATTACHMENT A-2

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POUR VOICEBD61377012053

MOTOSPAN71CM

POGTSTRUTTOS
TL3 NET IRTS

IXCROMAST
CAESAR
ALCORES
TT1YS AO F3
OCAL AU
TRUCKS

AUTO

TALCO
1
BIL3

TOTAL
ZUSYS

KOBIL

BUSES
Recu
20

22.
8.8
19.1

7.7 19:1 62.7 72.)

9.2 27.7 52.9 5.2 1.2 6.3

2.
:5:2
13.8
*2.3

17.7
53.2

2.1
$2.5

9.8 27. 56.2 6.0

7.1

2.6 10. 17.2 $8.5

6.2

2.1
955
$2.1
3.1
10.6
26.9
62.7
7.7

1.8

3.6
4.2
E..3
10.9
16.7

65.2
957

5.7

.9
&3.3
11.2
16.7
57.1
6.2

7.1

1.7 11.6 25.7

.7 5.3

1.0
11.9

71.3
6.2
1.0

7.2
100

2.5
62.7 23.5
12.2

73.9
7.0
1.0
8.0

2.3
+2.6
22.6
16.6
26.0

6.6
..? 6.

1.7
13.1 15.5

79.2
7.1
1.1

8.2
173
€3.0
33.5

2.7
13.7
26.5
22.7
7.9
2.2
9.2

2.9
71.9

.

9.3

2.9
75.3
83.3
25.:
15.7

9.7

2.6
163

21.3
15.9
16.9
96.0
9.3

2.7
617

11.0.

2.8
83.0
26.5
37.0
$6.9 8.1

2.5
12
81.5

2.3
27.3
17.2
11.9 10.0

11.9

3.2 18.2 17.3 ics. 10.2

12.1

3.3 87.3 22.3 19.1 27.7

10$. .8.2 Istra:ed

9.9 :971 $2.1 t2.2 19. 27.8 112.0 10.0

2.9 :572

11.9

2.8
52.2
20.6
27.9
115.2
ic.

2.0
12.1

2.5
97.0
62.9

1.8.

2.2

12.6 37.5 81.8 22.2 28.2 121.6 10.7

33.0

2.5 :975 2c2.0

81.7 22.8 126.8 20.9

13.3

2.5 2975

23.6 2.3 127.6 21.2

2.6 13.6

2. . 197

€1.6 29.2 38. 139.7 11.5

33.9

2.2
81.5
21.7
233.6 11.7

2.5
16.2

2.1 1979 310.7

82.6 25.3 28.6 235.0 12.0

2.5
16.5

2.0
120 112.9

87.6

25.8 • 38.6 239.6 12.2

2.5
14.7

2.1
:14.9
ei.
26.3
28.6
11.2 22.5

2.5
26.9

2.1
W2

e.
26.8
18.5
243.7 12.5

2.6
15.1

2.0
118.9
81.3
27.3 18.7

145.2
12.7

2.6

25.3
12:.
81.6
27.7
18.6
148.7
12.9

2.6
15.5

2.1
115
123.3

15.6
191.2 13.1

2,6 15.7

2.1
27-5

21.6
78.5
153.6 23.3

2.6
25.9

2.0 1957 127.2

28.9 :8.5 155.0

16.2

2.0 198 129.0

81. 29.3 je.s 258.3

2.7 16.5

1.9 1922 133.8 81.

160.5

2.8
16.7

1.8
232.6
B1.5
30.2
162.7 26.0

16.9

2.8
V Melor vehicle production plus mirorta less reaiatrasien Ineresent and change in Inventory equals retirements.
leve read carently the ster velele registrations in this forecast Ted Frimarily on experience, ples

peruiatlen data. The preduetien art retireen (BETOTT) Forecasts are cereputed on the
DAN. or the numbers neer u Cintain the forcent or vetele reistrations,
provided that the nerve vehicle-117120-years. 1 y. catalon control, or
other factors shorts the avere vehicle-lie on, or if the registratica forecast
prove to be too low, the deaf.recaat wudhave to be increase secerdinely. Ta
pel elresence. The presen Tervetuld have the reduced

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ATTACHMENT A-2 (cont'd.)

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96- 4700 - 73 - pt.3 - 9

ATTACHMENT

A-3

URBAN VEHICLE GROWTH PREDICTIONS

Table from:

Kass, C. B, "Car Registrations and Metropolitan Traffic in 1980" Ethyl Corporation Report TA-145 (June, 1969).

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DOT projected growth 1967 to 1980 from "Attachment A-2"

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