An auto

will require between one and two years of tooling design. matic assembly line and machining line combined will probably take anywhere from three to five years to develop and install.

The cost of a future Wankel-powered car will be $140.00 to $800.00 less per car than the corresponding 1976 dual-catalyst configuration; of this amount, $25.00 to $77.00 is due to the engine, and the remainder of the saving would come from design of a lighter, shorte

car.

5.1.4 The Carbureted Three-Valve Stratified-Charge Engine

Because the three-valve stratified-charge engine is basically an existing carbureted spark-ignition piston engine except for modi- . fications to the cylinder head, carburetor, and manifolds, it presents relatively few production problems. Manufacture of all components is based on known and proven technology. Honda Motor Company plans to produce this type of system for their 1974 models in Japan, and they will introduce it in the United States in 1975. For another manufacturer to mass-produce this system in model year 1976 would require the following accomplishments by mid-1973:

5.1.5

· Transfer technology from Honda Motors

· Freeze design for production

Decisions made and orders placed for new transfer lines
for cylinder heads, manifold systems, and carburetors

• Design new camshaft-production line

A Typical Feedback-Controlled System

Because of the apparent potential for emission reduction and ease of maintenance, which might result with further development of some of the feedback-controlled systems, manufacturability and costs of one of these systems were evaluated. The configuration studied

included electronic fuel injection and a three-way catalyst. As with the dual-catalyst system discussed in Section 5.1.1, this approach requires relatively minor changes to existing engines, with the conversion from carburetion to fuel injection being the most significant. The mini-computer that controls the injection timing and duration is based on known technology, and manufacture of the catalyst is similar to that for the dual-catalyst system. Once a satisfactorily durable oxygen sensor is developed, its manufacture should be relatively simple. Production of this system for the 1976 model year is quite feasible, provided the following have been accomplished by mid-1973:

5.2

• Freeze design for production

• Commit to pump and nozzle plants

• Build low-volume production tooling and vehicles

• Field test low-volume production vehicles

• Commit to electronic emissions control unit plant and
tooling

Manufacturability and Costs of Automotive Exhaust Catalysts

As discussed previously, most manufacturers plan to use a dual-catalytic system for 1976 model year vehicles. From a manufacturing standpoint, the problems of producing oxidizing and reducing catalysts are the same. pose pelletized catalysts already have the sources for a substantial portion of the carrier materials and some capacity for coating with the active material. This type of catalyst is used extensively in the petroleum industry. The manufacturing facilities need only to be increased or additional similar type of equipment provided.

The catalyst manufacturers who pro

Many companies are active in the development of catalysts and substrates. In addition to the long-established catalyst and substrate manufacturers, General Motors has recently disclosed that

they have developed

carriers. They have plans for constructing these facilities and have indicated their intention to become major emission-control catalyst manufacturers, including the carrier containers and possibly the active material that is coated on the carrier.

X

It has become increasingly apparent that 1976 catalysts will require the use of large quantities of noble metals. The two noble metals of greatest promise are platinum and palladium; for oxidation alone, a car of 350-cubic-inch displacement would need up to 0.15 ounces of either metal. This figure would be doubled if the requirement for the NO catalyst is similar. Thus, there would be a demand of as much as 3 million ounces for the initial installation of the catalytic converters required, a figure comparable to the world production in 1970. Ruthenium is the most promising NO, catalyst, although it is in short supply. The recovery of platinum contained in spent catalyst delivered to the door of precious-metal refiners should be above 99 percent. The efficiency of scavengers in collecting spent noble-metal catalysts is difficult to estimate. Since the value of the recovered metal is of the order of $15-20 per car, efficiency of scavenging should be high. For comparison, copper is 50¢ per pound and 61 percent of scrap copper is recycled in the United States. base-metal catalysts are promoted with precious metals at less than 0.01 ounce per car. In this case, there is less incentive for scavengers to collect resources.

Most

It appears that the required amounts of noble metal can be made available to meet production schedules if decisions are made early enough; postponement would cause increasing difficulties with delivery. Some companies have delayed decisions because of the very large commitments for opening mines and having new plants built.

5.3

333

Summary of Costs of Various Proposed Systems

The relevant cost concept is the total cost to the American people of meeting the emission standards, which must be weighed against the cost of air pollution by present automobiles with their attendant human discomforts and illnesses. This includes not only increases in automobile purchase prices, but also increased costs of fuel, maintenance, repair, and driveability that result from pollution-control devices. Of these considerations, it is especially difficult to relate poorer driveability to a cost in dollars, but the customer pays in other ways, e.g., through frustrations and delays. Dollar estimates of the other costs can be made, although these are necessarily imprecise because of uncertainties at this stage.

A summary of the estimated increments in annual costs due to emissions-control systems for several possible 1976 car and engine combinations is given in Table 5-4. The engines are those that have been discussed, and price increments have been calculated for those car-engine combinations that appear feasible. The stratified-charge 3-valve engine may eventually be developed for larger cars, but so far its potential for low emissions has been demonstrated only in small cars. The cost increments are measured from equivalent 1970 model cars as a baseline, and these annual costs are amortized over a five-year period. These figures include not only the direct cost of emissions hardware, but also associated costs of redesign of the

rest of the car to accommodate the new systems.

These associated

costs include weight penalties, which can be quite significant in either direction; e.g., diesel-powered cars will be relatively heavy, whereas an automobile designed around the compact Wankel engine can be appreciably lighter than present cars.

Estimates of increased costs of fuel consumption and maintenance due to emission controls are also included in the figures in Table 5-4. Of the five engines listed, the emission-controlled diesel

- 100

Table 5-4

Standard

50

85

52

87

97

114

Intermediate A bodies are those intermediates that currently use 6-cylinder engines.