Table 1 Relative Crude Required to Drive a Given Car a Given (a) From RON = 66.4 + 2.95 (CR): Wagner & Russum. (b) From Fig. 1 ("Acceleration" Mode): Wagner & Russum. (c) Based on 100% at 89.5 RON (d) Crude required at Refinery to make clear RON, based on 100% at 89.5 RON. (e) = (c) x (d). Assumes same driving conditions with "same" cars of varying CR only. Percent relative to 100 at base RON of 89.5. Bibliography 1"Optimum Octane Number for Unleaded Gasoline", by T. 0. Wagner and L. W. Russum, Amoco Oil Company, presented at 38th Midyear Meeting of the 2Summary of Statement of C. G. Gerhold, Universal Oil Products Company, Des Plaines, Illinois, to the Assembly Standing Committee on Transportation of State of New York, New York City, N.Y., September 17, 1970. 3" Systems for Automotive Emissions Control", by W. R. Epperly. Presented at Joint Meeting Midland Section of the AIChE and the Sarnia Section of the CSCHE, April 21, 1971. EXHIBIT C Energy and Emission Control It has been demonstrated that catalytic systems for the control of automobile exhaust emissions are a technologically and economically sound way to improve air quality. Furthermore, it is reasonably certain that the Federal Air Quality Standards eventually adopted will be stringent enough to require the use of catalytic converters on a substantial percentage of automobiles. Since catalytic converters require the use of unleaded gasoline, a statement is appropriate regarding the complex interrelationship of energy supply, of the economics of using unleaded gasoline, and of emission control. A study has been made to establish the cost of production of a lead free gasoline pool1. This study indicates that the additional refining cost is in the range of 0.95-1.5 cents per gallon of gasoline. The spread depends largely on accounting methods, pricing structures and on the manner of revising processing steps. The study further shows that in view of maintenance savings the motorist will gain 3 to 4 cents per gallon2. Thus, whatever additional costs of deleading are passed on to the motorist they will be more than compensated for by the savings. The next question is that of energy loss incurred in the conversion to the lead free gasoline pool. Studies indicate that in order to make the same volume of gasoline of equivalent octane number, an additional 4% of crude must be processed. This additional 4% of crude does not mean a 4% energy loss, it merely means that in the course of refinery operation the 4% has been converted to products other than gasoline, in this case largely substitute natural gas, or a refinery energy source. Thus, the conclusion is that to the motorist there is a net saving by using lead-free gasolines and that from the national standpoint there is no energy loss. * Also see Supplemental Statement No. 1 Let us now examine in greater detail the problem of energy supply, particularly with respect to gasoline. The attached graph (page 3) indicates the gasoline production and gasoline demand. The data are based on American Petroleum Institute weekly averages and Bureau of Mines information3. The data clearly show that the increased demand has outstripped the supply by a substantial margin. In preparing the graph, the month by month data for production and demand were used in a least square calculation to obtain a straight line relationship. It will be observed from the graph that over the last 41 months starting with January 1970, when demand and production were reasonably even, to May 1973, the gasoline demand has grown by 1.08 million barrels per day, while production has increased by 0.93 million barrels per day, representing a current deficit of 150,000 barrels per day. It is estimated that by the end of 1973 the deficit will reach 200,000 barrels per day. Thus, unless the rate of production is increased or the rate of demand is checked, the gasoline stocks, relative to prior years, will be depleted by nearly 30% by the end of 1973, The trend is quite obvious from the following table: summer of 1973 can be weathered with minimum difficulty (localized dislocation will be prevalent, however). The really serious problem in gasoline supply will occur in 1974. Serious difficulties on fuel oil supply will probably emerge in the 1973-74 heating season." |