Probability of Occurrence Question 8. Answer. QUESTIONS FROM SENATOR WIRTH Did you include any other possible contributors to domestic oil production or Yes. According to resource estimates prepared by the Minerals Management The OCS production estimates reported by the NES are the risked resource estimates, which take into account the probability of occurrence. The use of probabilities in this fashion is unique to oil and gas exploration and was not applied in analyzing other NES options. QUESTIONS FROM SENATOR WIRTH Question 12: Please explain the relationship between the NES and the FY 1992 budget request. In particular, would the 1992 budget request fully fund the NES initiatives? For example, would the initiative to "expand efforts to develop advanced renewable technologies" shown on page 19 of the NES be consistent with the 2% increase in renewable energy R&D in the FY 1992 budget? Answer: The DOE FY 1992 budget fully supports those actions in the NES requiring funding in FY 1992. Funding for any initiative needs to reflect the stage of development of that initiative. For example, an initiative that contemplates laboratory work ordinarily would require less funding than one contemplating a demonstration project. We are confident that DOE NES FY 1992 funding would support NES actions, including those related to advanced renewable technologies. Although the FY 1992 Budget Request for renewable energies is only 2 percent greater in aggregate than FY 1991, it includes a 10.4 percent increase for Solar and Other Renewables and more sharply focuses funding on promising technologies in photovoltaic, wind, and biofuels, where 9.7, 26.1 and 11.1 percent increases are requested respectively. This focusing is consistent with the thrust of the NES. In addition, further increases are included in the outyear projections which the White House has provided to CBO. Photovoltaics is one area in particular which is slated for further increases, and it also received a significant increase in the FY 1991 request (27%), based on its clear support in the NES process at that time. QUESTIONS FROM SENATOR WIRTH Question 13: Page C-22 of the full report says that 2.4 MMBD of the reduction in oil use claimed for the NES is due to increased use of alternative fuels and oxygenates, yet page C-26 lists the alternative fuel consumption in 2010 as 0.5 trillion cubic feet of compressed natural gas, 0.5 quads of biofuels and 0.1 quads of electric vehicles. Roughly, these seem to total only 0.5 MMBD. Please explain the apparent discrepancy here. Answer: Page C-22 says that 4.3 Quads or 2.4 MMBD of oil savings result from alternative fuels and oxygenates. While the estimate in quads is correct, the conversion to barrels of oil should be 2.2 MMBD, not 2.4. Of the total 3.4 MMBD of oil savings estimated in 2010, the breakdown by fuel type accounting for the 2.2 MMBD reduction is as follows: 1.4 MMBD of liquid alternative fuels (p. 63 graphic); 。 0.6 MMBD of oxygenates (p. 63), of which 0.4 MMBD is assumed to be from methanol and ethanol and 0.2 MMBD from natural gas; 0.5 Tcf or 0.2 MMBD equivalent of compressed natural gas (p. C-26); and, o 0.1 quads or 0.05 MMBD equivalent of electricity (p. C-26). These savings total 2.2 MMBD in 2010. Question 1: Answer: QUESTIONS FROM SENATOR WALLOP Recent events in the Gulf have highlighted the critical need to move forward on the development of a national energy policy. A focused energy policy not only furthers our national security Interests, but it creates American jobs, helps with our balance of payments, and lessens our dependence on distant markets and foreign cartels. Would you agree that our energy problems exist not because there is a shortage of domestic energy alternatives, but because of the lack of a long-term, comprehensive, and consensus-based national energy strategy? Would you agree that incentives are needed to foster greater use of domestic supplies of fossil fuels natural gas, oil, and coal which we have in abundanče? - This nation does not lack for energy - resources. What we have lacked is an ability to rise above special interest disputes that pit one fuel or technology against another. A fundamental objective of the NES is to show the Nation what our choices are, and what the consequences of those choices are, both now and for the future. With this full picture on view, perhaps we can do a better job of making energy decisions, and avoiding decision by default. b - We can make greater use of America's fossil fuel supplies, consistent with economic growth and environmental protection by: (1) removing barriers to markets for natural gas; (2) encouraging advanced oil recovery; (3) allowing development of promising resource areas under strict environmental safeguards; and (4) supporting the development and use of clean coal technologies. We believe financial incentives provided by the Federal Government should only be used as a last resort. On February 21, 1991, Admiral Watkins testified before your Committee on the Administration's National Energy Strategy. On March 19, 1991, we submitted answers to questions from yourself and Senators Ford, Wirth, Bingaman, Fowler, Nickles, Hatfield, Murkowski, Seymour and Wallop to supplement the record. We indicated that question 2 (AMWR) was still in the clearing process at that time. That question has been cleared and is enclosed for the record. If we can be of further assistance to you or your staff, please contact our congressional hearing coordinator, Barbara Barnes, on (202) 586-6341. Enclosure Sincerely, to the P Jacqueline Knox Brown Congressional and Intergovernmental |