of many months; and the actual state of the markets, the price of money, the activity of trade, the value of property, and the employment of industry, do not evince that any apprehensions of practically bad effects exist among capitalists and owners. On the other hand, the conviction that the policy of the government is fixed, and cannot again be disturbed, at least for some years, affords a feeling of relief that more than counterbalances any remaining apprehensions of deleterious effects from the enactments that have been perfected. The change which has been effected in duties on leading articles is, after all, not large-as, for instance, the price of pig iron in Liverpool in July, 1845, was £4 15s. per ton, or $22 80. On this, the duty was $9 per ton. The price of the same article is now £4 7s., or $20 95; and the 30 per cent, charged under the new tariff, on cost here, will amount to $7 per ton. Refined English bars are quoted abroad at £10 15s., or $51 60; and the duty, at 30 per cent, will amount to near $19, against $25. The quotation for similar iron in August, 1845, in Liverpool, was £11 10s., on which 30 per cent duty here would amount to $20, against $25, actually paid. There is nothing in these changes seriously to affect the iron interest, nor are the changes great on any other articles, unless it may be coarse cottons, which will pay 25 per cent against 48, which the virtual specific duties under the old tariff actually amounted to. On many articles, the duties have been advanced. This is more particularly the case in relation to imports from France. The trade with that country is usually what is called an unfavorable trade;-that is, what we receive from France is more than the amount we send her directly. The apparent balance she draws from London; for there the account is reversed. The French papers already complain of what they suppose an act of hostility on the part of this government towards that country; but no such hostile intentions can be fairly ascribed to it. The principle on which the duties were apparently adjusted was, to charge articles of luxury as high a duty as would suffice to yield the greatest amount of revenue; and most of the imports from France fall under this head of luxuries. Apprehensions have been expressed that, under the ad valorem principle adhered to in the tariff, so great frauds would be committed, that, while the country should be inundated with goods, the government would derive no revenue. That frauds to some extent will exist, there is no reason to doubt. They always do exist, and never to a greater extent than when duties exorbitantly high afford large profits to the illicit trader. Undervaluations of invoice cannot take place, to afford much profit to the importer at the expense of the government, only by presupposing the grossest negligence or collusion, on the part of the revenue officers -as, for instance, the price of pig iron is stated and well known to be £4 7s. per ton in Liverpool. This could not be understated in an invoice, in any material degree, without the fraud becoming self-evident ;-so of most other articles. The reduction of duties has diminished the profit of smuggling, and it is not reasonable to suppose that attempts to smuggle will therefore increase. The state of affairs in England is such, as to lead to the prospect of a very great increase in the consumption of American produce, and an improved value in the raw cotton and tobacco exported. The trade with England now is uniformly in favor of the United States; that is to say, Great Britain buys of the United States a value of produce much larger than the amount of British goods purchased by the American Union of her. The balance is usually discharged by the acceptance in London of American bills running from China to Europe, on the American

credits there created. The general modification of the English duties upon all American produce except tobacco, the removal of duties on cotton, and the prospective abolition of the corn laws, all tend both to the increased consumption of produce, and the enhancement of its value. The abolition of the English corn laws tends directly to the cheapening of food, through the competition of foreign produce. The effect of reducing the price of food in England is uniformly to promote the consumption of goods, and enhance the value of the raw material. Hence the direct effect is, by increasing the export of farm produce to England, to improve the value of cotton in that market. By, this double process, the American credits in England are swollen in amount. The principle of protection in England has been abandoned, and the question of revenue is that which now alone governs the charge upon any particular article. This points to a great and important change in favor of the United States trade-we allude to the position of the tobacco interest. Of all articles of modern commerce, that article has been subject to the most onerous burdens by the governments of Great Britain and Europe. The duties upon it in England are 724 cents per pound, being probably 1,000 per cent; and it is possibly the only article which would bear such a burden, because of the impossibility of finding a substitute, and the comparatively small quantities consumed by each person in the course of a year. It yields to the English government one-sixth part of their customs revenue. As a question of revenue, of which that government is always in want, probably the tobacco tax is one of the most judicious; but, at the same time, it is so high, as measureably to defeat its own object. It promotes smuggling to an inordinate extent, and not only deprives the treasury of its dues, but demoralizes the people. For many years, Mr. Joseph Hume has called the attention of Parliament to the matter; and there is now every prospect that a great modification in those duties will take place. As an instance of the course of the tobacco trade, we extract from official tables the quantities of tobacco exported from the United States to England, the quantities imported into England, the quantities re-exported, and those entered for consumption :

The United States fiscal year 1841 commenced October 1, 1840. In 1842, the year was changed, to commence July 1. The figures for 1843 are nine months, only. The year 1845 ends June 30, and the English years all end January 5, with the exception of 1845, for which the figures are for nine months, ending September 30; by which time the exports that left the United States June 30, had arrived out. The result is, that the whole imports into England are 27,000,000 lbs. less than the exports of the United States alone thither. This gives some idea of the enormous frauds that must be perpetrated. It is true that nearly all the tobacco consumed by England comes from the United States. The general

character of the English tobacco trade may be seen in the following figures, for

Under an ample warehousing system, England exports in her vessels to other countries, of United States tobacco, half as much as is entered for her own consumption. If, now, the duties are reduced to a reasonable rate, the consumption in England may, with the general prosperity, reasonably be supposed to increase largely; making, with the increased purchase of bread-stuffs, the improved value of cotton, &c., a much larger balance in favor of the Union, which must be paid for British goods. The returns of produce sold abroad must be made to the owners in something of value, and a trade can remain permanently healthy only when those returns are in the products of national industry. The reduction of the tariff is calculated to facilitate the import of goods in payment, and we cannot see that frauds to any extent can exist in the collection of the duties.

The operation of the warehousing bill cannot seriously affect the revenues of the government, because goods wanted for consumption will not remain in warehouse long. The facilities offered by that system will tend more to promote the carrying trade than to affect the markets here directly. A greater quantity of goods will doubtless be imported, when not compelled to pay cash duties on arrival. The goods thus collected in warehouse, at low expenses, will afford enhanced facilities for a carrying trade; but the quantity taken out for consumption will depend upon the activity of the internal demand. This, again, must be influenced by the state of the currency and the prices of produce. On the latter, depend the means of the great mass of consumers to buy goods. The three great staples of the South and Southwest--cotton, tobacco, and rice-promise good prices, through the effects of returning prosperity in England, where the chief sales of those articles are effected. With improved prices for those articles, the Southern trade will become more active; and the demand for warehoused goods, as well as those of domestic manufacture, more prompt and effective. The prices of Western produce, unfortunately, do not promise so well. The demand, both foreign and domestic, is not commensurate to the enormous supply which the active industry of an intelligent population draws from a most prolific soil. The prices last year were very low. Until the harvest began, the low prices seemed to discourage shippers and forwarders from very active operations; but, with the new crops, reports from England advanced prices, and induced active purchases; by which the farmers, for the most part, disposed of their produce at good prices.

The result has been the receipt of quantities unusually large, at constantly falling prices, involving millers and forwarders in severe losses; and these large supplies are hanging over the market at a time when crops equally as prolific are about coming into market. For these, it is not reasonable to suppose that the farmers will obtain prices so good, in the average, as last year. The quantity of breadstuffs received from the Western States, at the two great outlets of the New York canals, and the mouth of the Mississippi, are as follows, to August 1st:

The total receipts at these three points compare as follows:

This increase of flour and wheat, expressed in bushels of wheat, is equal to 5,796,213; or, say 724,526 English quarters. The inspections at three other points were as follows:

This presents an excess of near 1,765,255 bushels over last year, or 220,632 quarters. These two items make an increase of 1,020,246 quarters of wheat over the receipts last year. This excess for half a season is equal to one-half the whole quantity reported by the English consuls resident in Europe as the surplus of all the grain countries of that continent; and this is an excess over last year, when the supply for the home consumption of the United States was so great, as to depress prices considerably. These figures indicate the elasticity of the agricultural resources of the United States, and their capacity to supply the wants of Europe to almost any extent.

The international trade is, however, greatly influenced by the state of the currencies of two countries trading together. Where the currencies of both are equal to each other, the prices of commodities may be supposed to be influenced only by the demand and supply, and the cost of producing any particular article only by the natural advantages and facilities of either country. When prices are to be designated in money, it is necessary that the relative supply of that currency to the commodities in one country should be the same as in the other. When the currency is full, or, in other words, money, whether in the form of the precious metals or paper, is plenty, it is, like all other articles, cheap; or, prices of commodities are high. Unless money is equally plenty in the other country, the general level of prices will be high; or it will be more advantageous to the merchants, who transact the commerce of the world, to import goods, and less so

to export them; because the money for which they exchange goods is then more easily to be had. Hence, whatever favors an abundant currency, induces imports, and discourages exports. The removal or reduction of duties tend to give to the currency a more direct influence upon the state of commerce. The operation of the sub-treasury law is avowedly to steady the currency, by making the precious metal more active and valuable as a currency, and by discouraging that portion of the circulating medium composed of paper. The direct effect is to remove from prices all that artificial aid which they receive from a free issue of bank paper, and therefore to leave the import trade dependent entirely upon the effective demand for those foreign goods which, in a dear currency, can be furnished to better advantage from abroad than in this country. This effect of the sub-treasury law will doubtless counteract the reductions which have taken place in the tariff. The specie clause of the law cannot, however, be rigidly applied, so long as the government issues treasury-notes. The law authorizing the issue of $11,000,000 of notes, provides that they shall not bear more than 6 per cent interest, and shall be receivable for public dues. These notes can, doubtless, to the extent of $15,000,000, be held at par in the exchanges, at a nominal interest. They are very desirable for that purpose. This is illustrated in the fact that, although all interest ceased on the old issues in August, 1843, yet there are still near $500,000 of these notes outstanding. Whenever the money-market is tight, or the notes are so abundant as to fall 1 or 2 per cent below par, they will become the chief medium of payment to the government. Merchants will not trouble themselves to procure treasury-notes to pay duties, unless there is a profit to be made by it. The progress of the Mexican war will probably involve the issue of a sum larger than the $11,000,000 authorized, even although the rumors now current, in relation to a proposed settlement of the difficulties, should prove to be correct. The rumors state, as a basis of agreement, that the United States government shall assume, and pay to its own citizens, the claims due them from Mexico, and in return to receive both Californias, and the line of the Rio Grande as a boundary. This settlement would involve the issue, by the United States government, of some $2,000,000 of stock to the claimants, in addition to the war expenses. It is obvious that the issue of treasury-notes in payment of the services of volunteers, and government expenses generally, operates directly as an increase of the currency to the extent of the issues, and therefore must counteract that stringent effect of the sub-treasury law which appears to be apprehended in some quarters. It is also the case that there was in the government deposit banks to the credit of the treasury, August 1st, some $7,500,000. This money had been doubtless loaned out by the banks; and, as the expenditures of the government continue to exceed its revenues, this balance must be called in from those loans, and expended in different channels-an operation that may produce some pressure in certain quarters. The general tendency now, however, seems to be, for money to accumulate in the hands of capitalists, whence it will be offered, probably, cheaper.