merely nominal rate, too low to support the notes in the market, and they fell to a discount, which caused them to be returned to the treasury in payment of customs. The Secretary then made the application for a loan which we have alluded to above. The position seems to be thus, however: if the anticipations of a speedy peace, which have been indulged in, prove fallacious, the amount of war expenditure, and the length of time it is to continue, becomes altogether uncertain. The quantity of stock which the government will have to put upon the market, becomes matter of conjecture, and consequently, its value speculative. Hence an indisposition to take it at a low rate. Should, however, the hopes of a speedy peace be promptly realized, the amount of money which the government will want, becomes fixed and determined, and its value will depend more upon the state of the money market; and, in the present prospect, a 4 per cent stock would command par. The Secretary refused to give 6 per cent, a fact which would augur well for his hopes of peace. Apart from this incident of the money market, and the state of the import trade to which we have alluded, the evidences of prosperity are great and increasing. Among these evidences, the tolls on the public works are the most conclusive. On the great avenues between the Western States and the Atlantic States, they have been as follows, up to October 1st: On the New York canals, the increase is near 20 per cent, and on both, the excess over last year, increased as the season progressed, stimulated by the enhanced foreign export trade. The railroads and other public works in all sections show a similar improvement, giving unerring indications of growing business activity. The prices of the great leading products of the country have improved as follows: The advance in these prices in face of the large receipts, is sufficient evidence of the prosperity of the great interests engaged in their production, while the high freights and active employment of the shipping appears alone to check a greater animation, and a further advance in prices. The aggregate receipts of some articles of produce at tide-water on the Hudson, from the commencement of navigation in 1845 and 1846, to and including the first week in October, have been as follows: * Of this quantity about 160,000 bushels were received prior to the new crop coming into market. The increase in flour and wheat is equal to 719,042 barrels of flour. These large quantities have been disposed of at advancing prices, and without being checked by that pernicious disposition to wait for a rise, which has so frequently spoiled the market, and ruined the operators. The large quantities that come down pass altogether out of the market, and leave it in a healthy state to receive future crops. The income of tolls on public works, the quantities transported, and the rise in prices since June, do not alone afford evidence of a fair state of prosperity. The dividends on banking institutions at the leading points, afford the same evidence. The Banks of Boston declare their dividends in April and October: In the year 1840, the dividends amounted to $608,475, and in 1842, $914,050. 1840 was the lowest point, and since, the Boston bank profits have increased $297,525, or 35 per cent; and the dividends for the last half of 1846 were by far the largest of the series. The winter dividend, owing to manufacturing operations, is generally the largest. The New York bank dividends present similar results. They do not make their dividends all in the same month, as do the Boston institutions; but, generally speaking, the second dividend for the year has been the largest. The dividends are as follows: *The Boylston Bank is a new one, and its first dividend was in October for the year. The capital of the Freeman's Bank was increased $50,000, and the Merchants' Bank, $500,000. 492 NEW YORK BANK DIVIDENDS, 1845-46. 1845. 1846. Banks. Capital. Bank of New York.... $1,000,000 ed div. 4 $40,000 4 Am't. $40,000 Manhattan bank........ 2,050,000 3 61,500 3 61,500 Merchants'. 1,490,000 Mechanics'. 1,460,000 Union... 1,000,000 Bank of America..... 2,001,200 City...... 720.000 Phoenix... 1,200,000 North River...... 655,000 Tradesmen's... 400,000 Fulton...... 600,000 Butchers and Drovers' 500,000 Mechanics and Traders'. 200,000 National... 750,000 Merchants' Exchange.. 750,000 Leather Manufacturers'. 600,000 Seventh Ward... 500,000 State Bank of N. York.. 2,000,000 Bank of Commerce..... 3,447,500 632,000 1,155,400 $23,084,100 $1,433,901 $798,828 $817,584 In addition to their dividends, the Butchers and Drovers' Bank declared 4 per cent, or $20,000 extra, for a dividend omitted in 1842. The whole dividends amount to 7.09 per cent on the whole capital, and the amount is $182,511 greater than in 1845, and the second dividend in 1846 is $18,756 larger than the amount of the first dividend. 66 We have in all these items, the results of a regularly increasing prosperity. The panic fears which were partially excited during the session of Congress, were not, it appears, generally participated in. The great commercial interests were healthy and active, and the consequences are increased profits to capital and means of transportation; and this has been the case in the face of six months of existing war." Notwithstanding all the fears engendered, both in relation to the continuance of the war, and its probable injurious influences, capital has been fairly employed, and labor in demand. A great support to confidence has been the prospect of the intercourse with England and Europe. There probably was never a time when a combination of circumstances conspired to throw, to such an extent, into the lap of the western country, the surplus wealth of England and Europe, in exchange for their produce. The large export of food that is taking place, with every appearance of continuing still to grow in magnitude, in the face of a disinclination to import, from various causes, may tend, for a season, to make the precious metals the best means of remittance. During the last three years, the exchanges have been remarkably steady, and the movement of specie either way has been unimportant. The following are quotations of exchange by each packet for the last three years : For the five months, ending with September, last year, the export of specie was some $1,200,000. It has this year been but $400,000. The rate of exchange, which usually rises towards the close of the year, when cotton bills become short, this year declined under the influence of the diminished import above alluded to, and the increase of produce bills of other descriptions. The foreign prices of all descriptions of produce are now advancing, with every prospect of large sales; and, as money is cheap, and specie plenty in London, while goods are falling here, a renewed import of the precious metals may reasonably be looked for. It is a remarkable fact that, notwithstanding the vast extension of commerce all over the world, the great increase of industrial pursuits in Europe, requiring the use of capital, and the enormous expenditures of money in the construction of railroads, that the quantity of the precious metals collecting at the great central reservoirs, say London, Paris, New York, and New Orleans, are vastly greater than ever before, and money, at all points, is unusually cheap. At a late date, the Bank of France held $45,000,000, mostly silver; the Bank of England, £13,499,102 of gold, and £2,676,788 of silver. The Scotch and Irish Bank is £3,413,183 of gold and silver, together, £19,589,073, or $97,945,365 of the precious metals. The New York banks held $8,000,000, and the New Orleans banks $6,000,000, making altogether, at four commercial cities, $158,945,365 of the precious metals, not in use, but reposing in bank vaults! while money is unusually cheap. The failure of the harvests in Europe, and the superabundance in the United States of the produce of which they stand in need, must, of necessity, disturb the usual current of business, and probably lead to a large import of the idle masses of coin that now repose in the banks. The supply of the metals is also continually increasing. In the months of June and July, $10,000,000 of Russian gold arrived at London, and assisted to swell the already large amounts held by the bank. A large portion of that gold was sent to pay the dividends due in Holland on the Russian debt, and, being sent to London, where it was most valuable, was drawn against in favor of Amsterdam. The whole aspect of commerce is that of a large and prosperous business, with an unusual abundance of money in the United States. The progress of business at New Orleans, is strikingly illustrated in the following table, compiled from the annual returns given in the New Orleans Price Current : QUANTITY AND VALUE OF LEADING ARTICLES RECEIVED AT NEW ORLEANS, SEPTEMBER 1ST. From this table, it appears that, of an increase of $33,000,000 in the annual value received at New Orleans, by river, cotton is but $7,000,000. The remainder is of general farm produce, of which Indian corn has reached a value of $1,556,181, or five times that of 1841. Cotton, from being near 60 per cent of the whole value, has fallen to 45 per cent of whole value, notwithstanding that it has increased 50 per cent. The sugar crop has become equal in value to onethird of the cotton crop. The new impulse given to shipments by the state of affairs in Europe, will eminently tend to develop this feature of New Orleans trade. It is observable that the banking movement at that point is very much disproportioned to the rapid growth of its business, and the banks have kept on hand, for the last few years, an amount of specie far in excess of their circulation. This feature of the great amount of specie held by the banks in all commercial countries in proportion to their circulation, would indicate a much less amount of credit transactions. That is to say, that the bulk of business, being the actual transfer of valuable commodities from hand to hand, represented by bona fide individual bills, the latter are cancelled nearly as fast as they are created. The channels of retail trade are well supplied with money. The amount of the latter required, is, perhaps, less all over the world, by reason of the ruling low prices. In all minor individual transactions, money is required. In wholesale transactions, individual bills effect the transfer. When prices are low, much less money is required by an individual for his private use than when prices are high. This may account for large apparent commerce, with small demand for money. |