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JOURNAL OF MINING AND MANUFACTURE S. Resources and Manufactures of Jersey City-American Pottery Manufacturing Company--New
Jersey Rope-Walk-Phenix Works Jersey City Iron Foundry--Harsimas Hair-Cloth and Curled Hair Factories--Sperm Oil and Spermaceti Candle Manufactory-Atlantic Glass CompanyStarch Factory Summary of Manufactures of Jersey City,..
597 Manufactures in Tennessee,....
598 Iron Manufactures of Great Britain,..
599 Discovery of Diamond Mines in the Province of Bahia,....
600 Improvements in Alkali Manufacture.-Worsted Mosaic Manufacture,
601 Manufactures of Connecticut, in 1845,..
602 British Export of Cotton Manufactures, from 1844 to 1845,..
602 COMMERCIAL STATISTICS. Export of Tobacco from 1821 to 1845, inclusive,
603 Statistics of the Tobacco Trade......
603-607 Review of the Tobacco business on the Continent of Europe,......
607 Shipments of Cotton from Bombay from 1st January to 30th June, from 1843 to 1846,.
607 Chronology of the Tariffs of the United States,.......
608 RAILROAD, CANAL, AND STEAMBOAT STATISTICS. Townsend's Warming Apparatus for Railroad Cars,.
609 First Atlantic Steam Navigation..... New System of Railway Signals,....
611 Tolls received on the New York Canals, in 1846.....
614 JOURNAL OF BANKING, CURRENCY AND PINANCE. Legal Tender in the United States,
615 Public Debt of Ohio,........
615 Income and Expenditure of the United Kingdom, from 1843 to 1815,...
616 MERCANTILE MISCELLANIES. Mercantile Transactions in Scotland,
617 Comparative View of the Commerce of Europe,
618 Pepper Trade of Padang........
618 Baltimore Mercantile Library Association,...
618 British Consular Service,......
........ 618 TIE BOOK TRADE Notices of Thirty-seven New Works or Editions,...
Art. I.--THE COTTON TRADE.*
The course of the cotton trade during the last year, has been marked with considerable regularity. The advance at the opening of the season, being founded on a legitimate cause, an anticipated diminution of the stocks on hand, was fully sustained. A farther advance has now taken place for the incoming crop, and a general anticipation of still higher prices is manifested, both by the planters and the buyers. Under these circumstances, a careful examination of the relative supply and demand is more than usually important. If the deficiency in the great staple author. izes an advance not yet obtained, it is the interest of the planter to hold on to his cotton, and prevent the shippers and the English brokers from appropriating to themselves the advantages of the rise ; while, if any speculative advance, not founded on a demand exceeding the supply, should take place in the American markets, it would bring serious injury to the buyers in our seaports, and, by the decline it would surely bring, as the season progresses, disappoint and dissatisfy all those planters who had not taken advantage of the full prices.
Two short crops succeeding each other, must certainly authorize some advance. While the consumption in England and the United States has been rapidly increasing, the receipts last year, and the probable receipts this season, are less than the average of the last four years; and if the supply of East India cotton is taken into the account, the productions of these years will be less than the average of the preceding six.
* For similar papers on cotton crops and trade, from the writer of the present paper, see Merchants' Magazine for December, 1843, (Vol. IX., page 515,) also for December, 1841, (Vol. XI., page 517,) and December, 1845, (Vol. XIII., page 507.)
Average crop in the United States from 1841 to 1845,.
2,122,000 bales Amount of United States' crop for 1816,...
2,103,000 “ Average receipts of United States and Eust India, from 1839 to 1845, 2,270,000 Amount of United States and East India, for 1846, about.......... 2,230,000
The effect of this deficiency during the last year has been a reduction of the stocks in Europe of two or three hundred thousand bales, and if the new crop should turn out less even than last year's, a large reduction of the present stocks may safely be anticipated, and with this reduction, a corresponding advance in prices. The stocks are, indeed, yet large; but they are smaller than they have been for three years past, and any further reduction must seriously affect prices. Liverpool stocks, September 12th, 1846,.
730,000 bales. 12th, 1845,
967,000 13th, 1844,
928,000 15th, 1843,
831,000 And, from the lateness of our crop this year, the stocks will go on de. creasing, till, on the 31st of December, they will be considerably below the amount of either of these years. If the stocks on hand be estimated not in bales, but in the number of weeks they would supply the consumption, this deficiency would appear still greater.
Liverpool stocks. Weekly deliveries.
Bales. 31st December, 1843,.
18 In making up the estimates for next year's consumption, we must, there. fore, anticipate full prices, and make allowance for this influence on the demand. A falling off in the consumption will tend to counteract the ef. fect of a deficient supply, and both the amount produced, and the amount wanted, must be carefully considered before their effect on prices can be estimated.
The supply from the United States will certainly be much below the usual average. The receipts at New Orleans for 1846, if we include the amount from Texas, were larger than in any former year. The season was generally favorable, especially in Louisiana, Arkansas, Texas, and in some parts of Mississippi. For the present year, this district of country has suffered most severely from the caterpillar and the boll-worm. The lateness of the crop, on account of the cold spring and the excessive rains during the summer, exposed the plant more than usually to the ravages of these destructive agents. From many sections, not one-third of last year's production will be realized. In the northern part of Mississippi, these disasters have not been so extensive. From Tennessee, and North Alabama, the crop will be nearly equal to last year's. Although the weather has been, for the most part, favorable for picking out the crop, I cannot esti
. mate the deficiency at New Orleans at less than 20 per cent of last year's receipts. From the western part of Alabama, the reports are fully as gloomy as from Louisiana. On the prairie and canebrake lands, the most productive in the State, the crop has been cut off fully one-half. In the eastern part of the State the injury has not been so great ; but even there it has been severe, Last year this section suffered very much from the
Estimate for 1847.
drought, and it is believed this injury was as great as that now suffered from the worm. I would estimate the receipts
at Mobile at about 10 per cent less than last year's, or 30 per cent less than in 1845. From Florida, and that part of Alabama and Georgia that sends its cotton to Florida ports, the injuries from the worm have been great ; but the drought last year did, probably, still more harm. The increase in the planting and in the force at work, will belp to bring up this deficiency, but still the receipts will exceed last year's by a very small amount. Georgia and South Caro. lina have not suffered as much as the western States. The caterpillar has done sad work along the coast, and its damages have been serious in the middle section, but in the upper country the crop has scarcely suffered at all. The rains have, indeed, been too abundant in the early part of the season, and the weed has been too luxuriant to produce much fruit ; but the time for picking has been beautiful; and though nothing like a full crop can be expected, we may estimate a considerable increase over last year. I would estimate the receipts at 25 per cent over last year's, or 20 below those of the preceding year. The following would be my estimate for the whole country :
Receipts, 1845. Receipts, 1846.
517,000 422,000 330,000 to 420,000 Florida,
189,000 141,000 130,000 to 160,000 Georgia,....
296,000 195,000 240,000 to 280,000 South Carolina,..
426,000 252,000 310,000 to 360,000 Other places,
38,000 29,000 30,000 to 40,000 Total,.......
2,418,000 2,103,009 1,790,000 to 2,210,000 Average,...
., bales, 2,000,000 The English receipts from the East Indies have been recently diminishing, on account of the demand in China since the close of the war, and on account of the low prices in Europe. This falling off has been increased by the repeal of the discriminating duty against American cotton. When the English quotations for Surat and Madras fall so low as 3 to 31 pence, it is impossible to produce such an article as cotton, and bear the expenses of a long and distant voyage, and all the commissions and charges of the importers. The price is, however, advancing, and it will still further advance in Liverpool and London, so that we may anticipate an increase over last year's receipts. The following have been the Eng. lish imports for the last few years, and the circumstances which have in. fluenced their amount :Year.
274,000 Chinese war.
238,000 Moderate prices.
155,000 Low prices. 1845, six months.....
44,000 Repeal of duty. 1846,..
about 120,000 The amount for 1847 will probably be increased to 150,000 bales.
1842, 1843,... 1844,
The receipts in Great Britain, from Egypt, Brazil, and other places, are small, and nearly stationary. The following have been their amount for the last six :
Bales. 1841, 165,000 1845,..
124,000 1845, (Sept. 11th, Liv'l,). 132,000 1843, 165,000 1846,
130,000 1844, 197,000 1846,...
about 200,000 The receipts for the next year will not, probably, differ much from 200,000 bales. The stocks of Egyptian being very low in France, it is probable more than the usual amount will be turned to that country. We will thus have the total supply, from all these sources, as follows:-
Bales. Crop of the United States,.....
2,000,000 Receipts in Great Britain from the East Indies,
150,000 other countries,
2,350,000 Turning our attention now to the demand, I begin with the United States. Our consumption has increased with great regularity. The new machinery erected in the last two or three years, has been very great, and it is now only fairly getting into operation. The tariff has reduced the duty on cotton goods very considerably, but that will not seriously affect the manufacturers. The coarse, heavy goods, which absorb most of the cotton, can be made more cheaply here than abroad, and are thus inde. pendent of protection. The same is true of the amount worked up in cotton yarns. The cotton goods which we export will not, of course, be af. fected. Even in the common prints, we need fear no competition from abroad. In the medium and finer articles, the foreign importations will be more extensive ; but, as they will enter on a race of competition with the domestic product, the consumption will be increased by the contest, and the amount of cotton wanted by the manufacturer, will not, for the first year, be seriously affected by the importations from abroad. Nor will the rise in the price of our great staple affect the home demand. The advance in bread-stuffs, and in cotton, will enable the American consumer to buy largely; while the low duties, and the competition between the American and foreign manufacturers, will tend to counteract the effect of a rise in the raw material. Our consumption for several years past, has been as follows:
Average for consumption.
6.9 1842, (11 months,)
6.7 I would estimate our consumption for 1847, at 450,000 bales, which is at the average rate of increase for the last eight years.
The consumption in France is so very regular that their wants can be estimated with great accuracy. By Collman & Stollerforht's tables, it appears that the French consumption of American cotton has been as follows: