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Bales. 366,000 1845,.........
351,000 1845, (8 months,)...... 265,000 1844, 336,000 1846,....
264,000 The advance in prices may check this demand a little, but it cannot be estimated below 330,000 bales for the year 1847.
The principal market for cotton is yet to be estimated. The demand in Great Britain is affected by so many causes, that it is difficult to appreci. ate all, so as to approximate to a correct estimate. The home demand is affected by the abundance of money, the cheapness of bread, the wages of the laborers, the price of the raw material, and the general prosperity of their commerce. The foreign demand is affected by the state of the markets of every nation in the world. The prosperity of their numerous colonies, the demand in the United States, in South America, in China, and the East, in every country of Europe, exert their influence on the workshops of Great Britain. But through the operation of these various causes, much regularity is at least produced. A failure at one place is made up by an extraordinary demand at another, just as, in our own coun. try, with its various climates and seasons, a deficient production of any one article cannot easily occur throughout the whole Union ; with this differ. ence, only, in favor of the regularity of commerce, that the wants of man are more uniform than the winds and rains of heaven. The amount consumed in Great Britain, for 1845, was, according to
1,581,000 Burns' Commercial Glance.......
1,577,000 For the year 1846, which is not yet closed, we have from the “Commercial Glance,” the consumption for the first six months, 832,000 bales, against 837,000 for the same period last year. The Liverpool deliveries to the trade, which comprehend over 90 per cent of the whole consumption, show, also, but a triling decline.
826,000 July 17th,.....
823,000 896,000 August 14th,..
939,000 1,011,000 September 11th,.
1,079,000 1,121,000 These figures make it evident that the consumption will fall but little, if any, below that of last year. By comparing these with the preceding years, we have the following table :
Bales. Increase.-Bales. Average consumption of 1837 and '38,.
1,147,000 33,000 1839 and '40,
1,180,000 33,000 1841 and '42,
1,184,000 4,000 1843 and 244,
1,404,000 220,000 1845 and '46, about 1,560,000 156,000 In order to make up an estimate for 1847, let us recur to the influences that are likely to affect the trade of the ensuing year. Of the whole amount of cotton worked up by the manufacturers, about 60 per cent is exported. This appears by the following comparison, which is taken from Burns' Commercial Glance, and is made up from official tables :
Weight of consumed.
goods exported. centage.
438,000,000 268,000,000 61
544,000,000 323,000,000 60 1845,
607,000,000 337,000,000 55 To this immense export no check has yet been given in the present year. The export of plain and printed cloth bas indeed fallen from 453,000,000 of yards to 420,000,000, in the first six months of 1846 ; but this has been nearly made up by an increase in yarns from 55,000,000 of pounds to 64,000,000, and many circumstances favor a still larger export for 1847. The great reductions in the English tariff will extend their commerce in every quarter of the globe. The demand for foreign corn in England will enlarge their export of return cargoes to pay for these supplies. The American demand will be increased by the reduction of our tariff, and the enhanced price of our great staple. There is yet no glut in the extensive markets of India and China. Peace and prosperity everywhere prevail. The only check is the advance of prices of the raw material; but as this ought not to be large, and as it is only one element in the price of the manufactures exported, it will not be seriously felt.
In the English home market, many things are favorable to a full demand. Money is abundant, the Bank of England having recently reduced the rate of discount from 31 to 3 per cent; and though the railway speculation, and the extensive imports of corn, may tighten the market
, there is no dread of scarcity of money. Bread is cheap and abundant, and though the failure in the potato crop has caused a slight advance in bread. stuffs, the introduction of Indian meal at a nominal duty, and of wheat and flour at low duties, under their new tariff, will keep the price of food mod. erate, and below the usual average. The iron trade, so important in Great Britain, is in a most flourishing condition, and able, therefore, to afford full wages to the hands employed. The public works undertaken by gov. ernment in Ireland, and the new railways to be built, will keep up the wages of labor. The only serious drawback to a large consumption is the advance in the raw material. The rise that has already taken place under the influence of our last year's short crop, has not been met by a corresponding advance in manufactured goods, and the markets of Manchester are already gloomy and desponding. A further advance will force many of the mills to work on short time, and nothing is so fatal as this to a large consumption. In former years, this has uniformly reduced the English consumption, and the same result may be expected again. In spite of a flourishing commerce abroad, in spite of high wages and cheap bread at home, a rise in the price of cotton will certainly check the demand. While, however, everything else is favorable, a slight advance will not be very seriously felt; and, unless speculation on this side or on the other side of the Atlantic interferes with the natural course of trade, no such ad. vance in prices can be expected as will lessen the English demand much over 100,000 bales. I would, therefore, estimate it at 1,450,000 for the
As to the other foreign demand out of the supplies I have considered above, we have the following table of our exports to all other countries besides England and France, and also the English exports to the same, and the stocks on hand at the end of each year, and also the apparent consumption :
Stocks on Apparent
181,000 120,000 112,000
105,000 116,000 75,000 258,000 1842,
131,000 134,000 108,000 232,000 1843,
194,000 120,000 149,000 273,000 1844,
140,000 137,000 126,000 300,000
284,000 123,000 95,000 438,000
about 325,000 This table of stocks does not give the consumption accurately, for the amount on hand is only taken at a few of the principal seaports, and part of these stocks consist of Egyptian at Trieste, and some other places not included in these exports. But still this apparent consumption is very near the truth, and I do not think it can fall, under the influence of full prices, below 350,000 bales for 1847. It is well known that many of the States on the continent have been making great exertions to advance their manu. factures, and it is generally believed that their demand for cotton must increase.
Here now is the result of our examination of the probable supply and demand for 1847 :
2,580,000 Diminution of stocks in 1847, .........
230,000 In order to look at this subject from another point of view, we may con. sider the receipts on the continent from other places than the United States and England. This is not so satisfactory, because Ireland, Spain, Italy, Russia, and some other countries, are not included in the usual cotton ta. bles made up by the English brokers ; but the result will be the same as that we have already obtained.
The receipts in England, France, Germany, Holland, Belgium, and Austria, from all cotton-growing countries except the United States and East Indies, have been as follows :1842. 1843. 1844. 1845.
Average. 281,000 323,000 269,000 295,000 292,000 From the East Indies none comes but what is imported into England. Hence the whole supply in Europe, from Egypt, Brazil, and the East and West Indies, may be estimated at 300,000 bales, and the whole American and European supply will be 2,450,000 bales.
The consumption in France, Holland, Belgium, Germany, and Austria, has been, according to Collman's tables, as follows :1812. 1843.
This average will be above the consumption of 1847, on account of the advance in prices; but, as the increase of mills in Germany has been considerable in the last two years, it cannot well fall below 660,000 bales.
The export of England to other countries has been regularly increas. ing. To Petersburg, alone, it has been as follows:
1841. 1812. 1843. 1844. 1845.
Bales. 17,000 25,000 13,000 25,000 29,000 And to other places...
18,000 30,000 28,000 27,000 Making an average of.......
.... bales, 49,000 And for 1847, it may be safely estimated at above this average of the last four years. The exports of the United States to these other countries, I am not able to ascertain with accuracy, but from New Orleans, alone, they have been as follows: 1843. 1814. 1815. 1846.
Average. 31,000 37,000 66,000 52,000 46,000 and from the whole Union they may be estimated at 70,000 bales.
Taking then these results, we have the comparative supply and demand for Europe and America as follows:
2,680,000 Diminution of stocks,..
230,000 In these estimates I have put the crop of the United States higher than is warranted by the opinion of most persons acquainted with the subject, because the fine picking season and the advance in prices will bring to market every bale that is produced. I have allowed a considerable increase in the East India receipts, and a decline in the consumption everywhere but in the United States, on account of the anticipated advance in prices ; and yet, after all these allowances, the supply falls short of the demand more than 200,000 bales. This decrease of stocks will certainly warrant a considerable rise over the average price of the last six years, in which time prices have been low from a stock constantly accumulating in the European seaports. The average quotations at New Orleans, for the first four months of the year, taken from Hunt's Merchants' Magazine, are as follows :1841, 9} to 181 cents. 1844,
81 to 97 cents. 1842,
71 to 9
5 to 6
65 to 8 Average of the six years.
6% to 8f cents.
An advance on this average, of about one cent, has already (Oct. 6th,) taken place in this country, and a still greater advance may be confidently expected. The Liverpool prices have not yet taken an upward turn, but they will certainly be forced to it by their diminished stocks, and the well. founded reports they will soon receive of the injuries received by the crop on this side of the Atlantic.
Art. II.-HISTORICAL SKETCH OF NAVIGATION AND NATAL ARCHITECTURE.
NUMBER II.NEW SERIES.
Extending, as our interests do, to every part of the inhabited globe, and to every sea, to which our citizens are carried by their industry and enterprise, to which they are invited by the wants of others, and have a right to go, we must protect them in the enjoyment of their rights.-MONROE.
As soon as hostilities commenced between England and France, the merchant vessels of Holland were unjustly detained and seized by the cruisers of the former, under the pretence that contraband articles, destined for the naval service of France, and property owned by the subjects of that kingdom, were attempted to be protected by a neutral flag. A fleet of merchantmen, under the convoy of a frigate, bound to France, was captured by a squadron under Commodore Fielding, and carried into Spithead; and another insolent infraction of the neutral rights of Holland was perpetrated at the island of St. Martin, where several vessels that lay at an. chor under the guns of the fort, were taken and sent off as prizes.
These unjust depredations appear to have been committed for the purpose of provoking a war with Holland, and thereby preclude her from be. coming a party to the confederacy of the armed neutrality; and, although the United Provinces evinced an anxious desire to maintain peace on just and honorable terms with their ancient ally, a manifesto was issued against them, and hostilities were commenced early in the year 1781, by the de. tention of their vessels in the different ports of Great Britain, and the capture of two ships of war.
The United States had previously formed a treaty of amity and commerce with Holland, and the impolitic course pursued by the British cabinet, had rendered them, with France and Spain, an efficient ally in the war of the revolution. The States General immediately adopted meas. ures for fitting out a large fleet, and published a placart granting letters of marque and reprisal against England.
Admiral Rodney having been apprised of the war with Holland, and directed to attack its possessions in the West Indies, he immediately prepared an expedition for the reduction of St. Eustatia, which had long been the entrepot of a vast and lucrative commerce, as it was the grand free port of the West Indies and America. He appeared before it, on the third of February, with such a large naval and land force, that resistance was not attempted, and the garrison surrendered without any stipulation. The wealth found was so immense as to astonish the captors, for the whole island appeared to be one enormous magazine. The value of the commodities was estimated at over fifteen millions of dollars. There were, besides, upwards of two hundred sail of merchantmen in the harbor, many of which were richly laden, a ship of sixty guns, a frigate, and five other armed vessels of inferior size.