United States Consumption-Crop of 1852. 287 dia does, the crop of the United States, are diminished 37,000 bales; and we furif doubled, would not supply their de- ther find that the stocks in the interior mand." Well, the consumption in towns, on the 1st Sept., were next to France, Germany and the rest of Eu- nothing, and that, instead of a considerrope, will increase in a ratio fully corresponding with our ability to supply them, and this must continue, from the fact that the cotton goods can be afforded cheaper than flax or hemp goods; the land which produces the hemp will, planted in potatoes or wheat, yield a more profitable crop, and the latter are raised with much less labor and expense. able quantity being held back in the gin houses and on the plantations, as usual, the prices which cotton advanced to in the spring brought every bale forward into last year's receipts, and which are estimated, in the aggregate, to have been from 300,000 to 250,000 bales. While this quantity went to swell the receipts of last year, it will be borne in mind that the supply of cotton for this year loses it, and we must deduct, from the otherwise probable receipts of this year, that quantity. We now pass to that of the U. States. The consumption of the past as compared with the former years is extraordinary, being, as you perceive, about 50 What of our crop? After the extraorper cent. increase we may properly dinary one of last year, and its excess inquire into the cause of this difference, over any one's calculations, I feel some and consider if it is likely to continue to reluctance in touching on it. I will simincrease. I gave, in my circular before ply say it is confessedly good-over an alluded to, reasons for the falling off of average crop. The receipts of the last five so much, apparently from the preceding years were, for 1851-2, 3,015,000; 1850-1, year, which was, that the constant and 2,355,000; 1849-50, 2,097,000; 1848-9, heavy exports of specie then going on had 2,729,000; 1847-8, 2,348,000=12,544,000; alarmed the Northern banks, as they held or, an average of 2,509,000 bales per ancomparatively no specie, causing them num. The average of the preceding to withhold their accustomed and essen- five years was 2,137,000 bales, and the tial accommodations. When the imports increase per cent. per annum of the latof California gold became uniform and es- ter over the former period is 3 per cent. tablished, and they were satisfied that the at which rate per cent. on the average imports of gold would be greater than the exports, they relaxed and extended not only their usual but increased facilities to the manufacturing as well as other interests; hence the increased manufacture. But shall it be continued? When we regard the important emigration which has been annually flowing into the country, as well as our own naturally and rapidly increasing population, that the entire country, especially west and south, are all in the highest degree prosperous, we must conclude that our own home trade must every year be augmented, with the increase of the country. In conclusion of this branch, it is plain to us of the South, that our consumption of cotton goods is very rapidly enlarging, and our manufacturers are fully engaged and steadily increasing their power and spindles. I anticipate further regular advance in this branch of the nation's enterprise, and that the consumption of 1853 will be progressive. We now turn to THE CROP OR SUPPLY.-Small as were the stocks remaining in our ports, 1st September, 1851, we find this year they would give a crop this year of 2,600,000 Receipts and crop of last year .3,015,000 265,000 .2,750,000 With "the lights before me," I am doubtful if the crop of this year exceed that figure. Were we governed alone by the receipts to this time at our ports, compared with last year's to the same time, this view would be palpably and at once contradicted, I confess; but what are the circumstances attending the receipts of the two years? They are these: that last year the waters tributary to NewOrleans, save the Mississippi itself, were unnavigable until in February; so unusually late did they continue down, that many of the most opulent firms Less this amount received in Europe previous to 1st Jan., Cotton imported into Europe Supply for 1853.. there suspended payment. Our rivers But leaving these comparisons, I will briefly submit my estimates for the probable receipts at each point for this year. No old cotton to come in from the interior of Georgia and South Carolina, and their crops not quite so good as last year. I put the receipts of the 750,000 170,000 480,000 .1,250,000 100,000 2,750,000 The frost was late or I would not put it so high. And considering the occurrence of very wet and bad weather for gathering of late, especially in Mississippi and Louisiana, this appears to me a very full, and fair estimate. Worms, rot and storms have injured the crop this year, else I admit it would have been larger. Contending with these enemies it is a heavy one if it reaches 2,750,000, and as I have sometimes over-estimated, I must insert here, I would not be surprised if the crop falls below this. The supply from other countries, imported into Europe, we may put down the same as last year, and we may thus view the result. 100,000 2,650,000 700,000 500,000 3,941,000 Above I have given the consumption of 1852, which was, bales, 4,000,000; showing the supply of 1853, inclusive of the entire stocks in Europe and America, will be less than the consumption actually is and has been of 1852,-59,000. This view may be questioned, as the results are arrived at by estimates of crops and estimates of consumption, but I will defend them under the proper head of cents, PRICES. Our views of prices are dependent on the extent of consumption and the crops or supply of cotton. I have above shown what the probable supply for 1853 would be, and with the entire stocks of cotton on hand in Europe and America, it will be less than the consumption of 1852 has been. Were the crops, I admit, fully ascertained today, to not exceed my figures, the price of middling cotton would be 12 with all the concurring favorable causes to place them at that. I think 2,750,000 bales will be the extent,-but let us admit for a moment that, independent of the lessened quantity to come to market being entirely stripped last year of cotthis year, in consequence of the country ton, the receipts will go to 3,000,000 bales. Well, so much the better for us; but will 3,000,000 bales weaken our position materially as to prices? The consumption we put down for Europe is the late published estimate of English pathe last dates-that of the United States pers, confirmed by circular statistics to has been authoritatively footed up. It may be contended, the manufacturers hold more stock than they are accustomed to. hold as much in proportion to the conNo one will contend they sumption as they held last year. Our prices current show that, on the 27th November, 100,000 bales were cleared for Europe since 1st September, more 91,000 than had been to the same time last year, and this will be received in Europe and be counted in the stock, which, with this, will not exceed the quantity I put down, viz: 500,000 bales. I say if the crop should be 250,000 bales more than Probable Repudiation by England of Abolitionism. my estimate is, then there would be the extravagant stock in Europe and America of 191,000 bales on 1st Jan. 1854. To quibble about this matter will be ridiculous, as in any intelligent view it is presented, it is very transparent that the tendency to increased consumption for 1853, must be checked by an insufficient supply. What are our grounds supporting the conclusion, that the consumption of 1853 would be greater than 1552, were it not checked by this insufficiency of the raw material? First, the peace of the world and the total absence of any exciting political questions any where. As, for example, the late decision by Parliament to maintain in Great Britain unrestricted trade, lops off all suspense there. Again, the establishment of the empire of France by unsurpassed unanimity, confirms not only the progress of prosperity and quiet in France, but secures it in all Europe. Further, the nomination by the Southern Rights Party of this country of Gen. Pierce for the office of President, and his unexampled majorities in the South, which, contrary to the apprehensions of some of his friends South, were quite as fully maintained in the North, having been elected with the dissenting voices of only four states, give confidence and encouragement to the people of this country, that the fanatics of the North are stripped of their poison, and that the admonition of Mr. Winthrop in Congress, that the South should prepare for emancipation, was the struggling and flickering twilight of abolition. The establishment and confirmation of repose among the people of the South produced by this election, I regard of momentous influence at the present time on the question of prices for our staple. 289 Can there be a question for a moment of what will be the effect of this accession of the precious metals upon the price of a naterial of this nature? A material which cannot be supplied at any price, in a ratio commensurate with its consumption-and in the face of those multiplied accessions of gold from year to year, I consider, in the present position of all the great interests which are connected with cotton, that its consumption would not be checked at all, if prices for this crop were to go to 12 cents, and that prices will advance this year and continue good, I have no doubt. Permit me to say, in explanation of my allusion to abolitionism, what I consider to be the position now of the slavery question. Seeing the vigilant and constant inquiry the British Government is making as to the effects of emancipation in the South American and West India Colonies, and of slavery as it exists, and observing the pulsations of the English people respecting it, I am with other reasons conducted to this conclusion. Its enunciation may surprise manynay, all; but I venture the assertion that it will be so: That is, that the English Government will openly and practically repudiate the false position they took and now occupy in reference to it. A glance at the influence which effected emancipation in the English West Indies, and which has been outlived by time and experience, will detain us for a moment. The East India Company', anticipating the value of the productions of the West Indies and the Isthmus, for the preservation of their very distant possessions in the East, resolved on emancipation in the English West Indies. They promulgated arguments, that emancipation, The fine harvests of Great Britain and while it would cause an additional dethe continent-the superabundance of mand for the labor of the white, would money—the universally prosperous and at the same time increase the producprogressive spirit of trade-concur to sup- tions of the country by the application port prices. But we have only one more of this intelligent labor, and that the point we need to add. Besides the trade of the mother country would be quantities of gold received in this country and Europe from California and Australia, produced there previous to 1st August last, it is estimated, by competent authorities, that the gold of California will reach, in the 12 months, from 1st August, $100,000,000; of Australia, for the same time, $200,000,000-making, for the 12 months, from the 1st of August last, $300,000,000. benefited, as the whites would consume more than the blacks; that the productions, being augmented in quantity, would be furnished to the mother country much lower than as it was; and that the treatment of slaves was horrible; and for miscellaneous and promiscuous reasons, emancipation ought to take place. The people of England have already experienced that all these arguments were false. And the pressure of the cotton question will cause them ere long to declare the trade in negroes to be as free and unrestricted as the trade now is in anything else. Will they consent, in this enlightened age, that the very Eden of America shall shed its uncultivated fruits in desert wilds? Assuredly, assuredly, not! They will themselves say, that it will be as wise, as humane, to reclaim from the wilds of Africa its savage race, and place them in a position to benefit themselves and the great family of man. There is an apathy on the subject of slavery elsewhere than amongst a portion of the English and a portion of the people of the North. However, with the opposition to it, in England removed, the trade will be reopened-and her citizens will largely and fully participate in it, in all its ramifications. ART. XI.-COMMERCIAL PROGRESS. COMMERCE OF NEW-YORK-IMMIGRATION INTO NEW-YORK, 1849-1852-BRITISH COMMERCEBRITISH AND AMERICAN TRADE COMPARED-LOSSES ON THE LAKES, LAKE TRADE, ETC. COMMERCE OF NEW-YORK.-The NewYork papers of January the first, contain an immense mass of statistical information in regard to the commerce and trade of that city, from which we make the subjoined abstract, and will hereafter give the full statistics. The total imports for 1852 amounted to $129,849,619, showing a decline of $1,511,959 on the imports of the previous year. The amount of specie imported was $2,408,225, against $2,049,543 in 1851, and $16,127,939 in 1850. The great est excess of importations is on dry goods -it being over three millions of dollars. The total import of dry goods for the year, was $61,654,144, against 62,846,731 for 1851. The import of woolen goods for 1852 was over sixteen millions of dollars; of cotton goods over eleven millions; of silk goods twenty-two millions; of flax goods seven millions. The Journal of Commerce, from which we glean the above facts, has also the following table showing the values of some of the leading items of imports for the last year: Cigars Coffee. Hardware and cutlery Hides Lead Liquors Molasses. Wines R. R. Iron Steel.. Sugar Tea Tobacco. Tin Watches portion of the dutiable imports have been made up of articles of luxury, which pay a high rate of duty. The amount of cash duties received at New-York the past year, $31,332,737; in 1851, $31,081,263; in 1850, $28,047, 439. The total exports for the year were $71,523,609, of which $25.096,255 were in specie! The total exports of 1851 amounted to $87,653,849, of which $43,743,209 were in specie!! From this it will be seen that the excess of specie exported last year was $18,640,954, and that the shipments of both years were greatly to the advantage of foreign manufacturers. The Journal of Commerce, commenting on these facts, says: It will be seen that the falling off is altogether in specie, and that exclusive of this item, the exports have increased $2,517,714, although they are less than the very large amount reached in 1850. We annex a summary of the exports of specie and merchandise for three years:― $1,917,118 3,005,862 1850. 1,248,960 1,923,929 1,645,356 6,398,104 Specie. Total. Merchandise. .$25,096,255....$46,427,354....$71,523,609 43,743,209.. 43,910,640.. 87,653,849 9,982,948.... 50,136,300.... 60,119,248 The specie exported is as much do955,880 mestic produce, as wheat or corn, and 3,580.838 if more of it had been shipped, our home 1,083,554 market would be in a more healthy con8,926,690 dition. In this connection, we present 703.387 a comparison of the quantity of some of 3,045,320 the leading articles of produce shipped from this port for the last two years, the total value of which is included above under the head of merchandise. The 2,183,047 The revenue from cash duties received at that port, show that a larger pro Immigration for 1852-Value of British Produce. Nations. 1849. 1850. 291 1851. 1852. shipments of flour have increased about giving a comparative view of the immi100,000 bbls., while the exports of wheat gration at this port during the four years have been doubled. The shipments of past: corn have continued to decline for the last three years. Many other items of Ireland interest will be found in the com- Germany parison. England Scotland France. Spain... Holland.. There were exported from New-York Wales in 1852, 336,679 bales of cotton against 289,645 bales the previous year; and Switzerland 26,113 tierces rice against 29,100. The exports of domestic cotton goods amounted to 54,692 packages against 24,006 in 1849, showing a heavy increase. The amount of gold dust entered from California for the year is $37,363,569, which is much less than was reported at the mint. The total number of steamships which arrived during the year was 206. Ships 956, barks 860, brigs 1253, galliots 2, schooners 544, yachts 1. Total 3,822. The number of schooners reported by Capt. Lunt of the Sandy Hook lightship, as having passed in sight of that ship, inward bound, is 1132. Italy. Nova Scotia.. South America.. 112,587..116,542..163,256..117,537 55,705.. 45,407.. 69,883..118,126 28,321.. 28,125.. 28,551.. 31,275 8,840.. 6,771.. 7,302.. 7,640 2,683.. 1,782.. 1,520.. 214.. 257.. 278.. 450 1,405.. 2,361.. 4,499.. 6,455 2,447.. 1,174.. 1,798.. 1,323 Total........ .230,608..212,896..239,601..505,504 In a late number of the Economist, edited by that able commercial writer, Thomas P. Kettell, of New-York, we find an admirable paper upon the growth of British trade. We extract the follow IMMIGRATION FOR THE YEAR 1852.- DECLARED VALUE OF BRITISH PRODUCE EXPORTED TO DIFFERENT PARTS OF THE WORLD. 10,004,399....15,469,312....14,770,097....22,346,698 7,320,654 ..11,570,542....16,830,416....16,433,174 9,292,630. 5,288,074.. 5,066,749... 6,317,029. 5,373,955. 6,482,553.... 7,738,420....14,772,570. 19,937,287. ....10,404,555.... 27,091,322 £45,494,219....36,424,652....37,164,372....53,293,979....47,381,023....74,449-712 8,578,528 |