1964 APPLE CROP... The 1964 commercial apple crop totaled 140.3 million bushels, 12 per- cent more than the previous year's crop and 14 percent more than aver- Red Delicious was the leading variety accounting for almost one-fourth of the total production. Other leading varie- ties and their percentage of total pro- duction were: McIntosh, 13 percent; Golden Delicious, 8 percent; Rome Beauty, 8 percent; and Jonathan, 7 per- cent. These varieties accounted for Production of Winesap apples con- tinued to decline, accounting for 5 per- cent of the production in 1964 com- pared with percent for both 1963 and Of the 1964 crop, 86 percent was win- ter varieties, 10 percent fall varieties, Apple production in the Eastern States accounted for 62.9 million bushels or 45 percent of the 1964 crop. The Western States produced 44.5 million bushels or 32 percent, and the Central States 32.9 million bushels or Production was higher in all Central States. All Eastern States except New In the Western States production was down primarily because Washington's crop was down 5.9 million bushels from a year earlier. This drop was partially offset by an increase of 3.6 million Washington led the Nation in apple production with 26.0 million bushels, followed by New York with 22.5 mil- lion. Michigan was third with a crop of 18.5 million and California was fourth with 12.0 million bushels. These EXPANSION EXPECTED Farmers can look forward to a sharp expansion in foreign markets for U.S. food exports by 1970. World population is rising. Incomes are improving and the world's peoples seek better diets. At present people in many areas of the world are unable to get nutritionally adequate diets. These areas have a food gap. Although the gap will narrow as a result of higher food production it will still exist in 1970. PERIODICAL The expected calorie gap in 1970 will be equivalent to 60 million short tons of grain. The deficit in animal protein will likely be equal to 7.2 million tons of nonfat dry milk. About 3.5 million tons of soygrits would be required to fill the pulse and other protein deficit. And 3.4 million tons of vegetable oil would be needed to satisfy the fat deficit. Exports to these "diet-deficit" areas will account for a large share of the increase in U.S. food exports expected by 1970. Overall, United States food exports are likely to increase 50 percent between 1960 and 1970. Diet-deficit areas are regions that have nutritionally inadequate national average diets. These include Asia, except Japan and Israel, all but the southern tip of Africa, the northern part of South America, and almost all of Central America and the Caribbean. Although total U.S. wheat exports are expected to increase 27 percent by 1970, wheat's share of total U.S. food exports will decrease from 34 percent to 29 percent. Rice exports are expected to increase about 53 percent during the 1960's but will continue to be a small part of U.S. food exports. Coarse grains are projected to increase 55 percent and will remain about one-fifth of the total. The greatest increase in food exports is expected in vegetable oil and oilseeds. These are likely to increase 90 percent from 1959-61 to 1970 and their share of the U.S. export food market from 17 percent to 21 percent. Meat other than poultry is projected at 93 percent higher and poultry and fruits are expected to increase by nearly one-half. Northern Europe is the best subregional customer for U.S. food commodities. Countries of this area took 29 percent of U.S. food exports in 195961 and are expected to take 27 percent in 1970. Increases are expected in all food groups, principally in coarse grains, vegetable oil and oilseeds, fresh and processed fruits and vegetables, and meat other than poultry. South Asia including India took 10 percent of U.S. food exports in 1959-61. By 1970, this region is expected to take 14 percent. Major increases are anticipated in wheat, rice, coarse grains, vegetable oil and oilseeds, lard and tallow, and dairy products. U.S. food exports to Canada are expected to increase 35 percent by 1970. Significant increases are likely in lard and tallow, fresh and processed fruits, pulses and nuts, and meat other than poultry. Southern Europe's share of U.S. food export is expected to decline from an average of about 8 percent in 1959-61 to 6 percent in 1970. But U.S. exports to the area are likely to rise 20 percent. Coarse grain exports to this region may rise as much as 184 percent by 1970, but will be partly offset by an expected decline of 1.1 million metric tons in wheat exports to the area. An improved market is expected for vegetable oil and oilseeds, and lard and tal- !| low. Japan will remain the most im- ¦ portant single customer for U.S. food exports. U.S. food exports to Japan are expected to rise 135 percent by 1970, raising Japan's share of U.S. food exports from 6.5 percent to 10.3 percent. The most important increases will be in coarse grains, vegetable oil and oilseeds, nonfat dry milk, fresh and processed fruits, and wheat. Food exports to South America (excluding Argentina and Uruguay) are likely to expand 63 percent by 1970 compared to 1959-61. Substantial increases are projected for wheat, coarse grains, vegetable oil and oil seeds, lard and tallow, and nonfat dry milk. U.S. food exports to North Africa are expected to increase about 65 percent in the 1960's. Wheat exports are likely to increase from 2.0 million metric tons to 2.5 million. Coarse grains will decrease somewhat, but vegetable oil and oilseeds are projected to reach about four times the 1959-61 level. Lard, tallow, and nonfat dry milk are also expected to more than double 1959-61 exports to this area. Southern Africa is expected to receive the greatest percentage increase in U.S. The Agricultural Situation is sent free to crop, livestock, and price reporters in connection with their reporting work. The Agricultural Situation is a monthly publication of the Statistical Reporting Service, United States Department of Agriculture, Washington, D.C., 20250. The printing of this publication has been approved by the Bureau of the Budget (March 12, 1964). Single copy 5 cents, subscription price 50 cents a year, foreign $1, payable in check or money order to the Superintendent of Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, D.C., 20402. High protein food consumption to rise ANNUAL WORLD PER CAPITA CONSUMPTION food exports. This is because of large projected wheat shipments of 110,000 metric tons in 1970 compared to none in 1959-61, and an increase in rice exports from 31,000 metric tons to about 82,000 metric tons. The increase in the value of dollar sales of U.S. food exports during the 1960's is expected to be substantially greater than the increase in the value of exports of food commodities under Government-financed programs. The increase in program exports during the 1960's will be to the diet-deficit regions to meet increasing needs for food products resulting from population growth and rising levels of living. Wheat exports in the 1960's principally to South Asia and South America, probably will account for more than twofifths of the total increase in value of food exports under concessional programs. It is also expected that increases in program exports of wheat to the diet-deficit subregions in the 1960's will be accompanied by substantial increases in dollar sales of wheat to South America, East Africa, and West Central Africa. Wheat exports-both commercial and concessional-to the diet-adequate sub NEG. ERS 3178-8419) ECONOMIC RESEARCH SERVICE regions will be less in value in 1970 than in 1959-61. The decline in wheat exports to the diet-adequate areas during the 1960's will be greatly offset by the increase in U.S. sales of coarse grains to the same areas. About 90 percent of the expected increase in U.S. coarse grain exports during the 1960's will go to the diet-adequate areas and nearly all will be sold for dollars. Most of the increase will go to Europe and Japan. Exports of vegetable oil and oilseeds will undoubtedly make substantial gains in value in both the diet-adequate and the diet-deficit subregions in the 1960's. Increases in the value of dollar sales of oilseeds to the diet-adequate areas-chiefly Japan and Europe-are expected to be substantially greater than the value of Government program exports of vegetable oil to the dietdeficit area. Program exports and dollar sales of dairy products, principally butter and nonfat dry milk, poultry, pulses, rice, and lard and tallow are expected to be higher in value in 1970 than the average annual value for 1959-61. Q. M. West Economic Research Service |