The Future of American Commerce

BY HON. JULIUS C. BURROWS

UNITED STATES SENATOR FROM MICHIGAN

NE would need to be possessed of the spirit of prophecy in a remarkable degree to speak with any degree of accuracy as to the future of American commerce. If domestic commerce alone is intended to be embraced in this phrase, we could speak of its future with reasonable assurance, for the future of our domestic trade is reasonably assured. With free and unrestricted intercourse between States, our marvelous industrial development, the inexhaustable supply of raw material and the enterprise and energy of our people, with wholesome laws promotive of commercial development, it is not difficult to divine the future of our domestic trade. Its marvelous past proclaims the certainty of the future. It is an astounding fact that our domestic commerce on land and sea aggregates twenty-two billions of dollars annually and exceeds in magnitude the foreign commerce of all the nations of the earth. It is not difficult, therefore, to divine, that with the increasing and steady development of our resources and the improvement of our rivers and harbors under the patriotic administration of the distinguished gentleman from Ohio, Mr. Burton, the magnitude of our domestic commerce is only limited by the extent of our resources and the energy of our people. So far, therefore, as the future of our domestic. commerce is concerned, it is not open to speculation or doubt.

The future of our foreign trade is more problematical and its development is a matter of keenest solicitude. This is pre-eminently a business age, and the nations of the earth, as never before, are struggling for the mastery of foreign trade. With the absorbent capacity of our domestic market taking ninety-two per cent of our manufactures, yet we produce more than we can consume, and a foreign market must be found somewhere outside of ourselves for the surplus products of our shops. With six hundred thousand manufacturing establishments employing seven million of workmen, and with an aggregate annual output of fifteen billions of dollars, we have

become the greatest manufacturing nation on the face of the globe, and after supplying the needs of our people, we have a surplus of one billion two hundred million of manufactured goods which must be disposed of somewhere in the world's market. I expect the future will bring to us a greater measure of the world's trade, which takes today four billion dollars worth of manufactured goods and the United States furnishes only five hundred million or twelve and one-half per cent. I look to see our share in the world's markets greatly augmented. I expect the future will give us a

larger market in Asia, South America and Africa. I expect the future will give us a larger trade with the people of South America, standing at our very door, who last year took three hundred and eighty millions of dollars worth of foreign products, only thirty-five millions of which came from the United States. While she purchased from England one hundred and twenty millions; of Germany, fifty-four millions; France, thirty-five millions; Spain, eight millions, and even of distant Italy, thirty-four millions; and the

United States furnishing but thirteen per cent of this foreign consumption. Asia and Oceana took seven hundred million dollars' worth of manufactured goods, of which the United States furnished but sixty-five million, while Africa with her three hundred millions of imported manufactures, took from the United States only thirteen millions. In the matter of cotton goods it is astounding to know that South America as a whole took sixtythree million dollars' worth of cotton fabrics and only three and one

half millions or ten per cent from the United States, although the United States is the greatest producer of cotton of any nation on the globe.

While our trade with these countries is so restricted, and we furnish such a small part of their imported manufactures, yet the prospects of enlarged commerce with these nations was never more flattering than today. More than that, our outlying possessions furnish a fresh field for commercial exploit. Six years ago our exports to Porto Rico were only two millions of dollars, while last year they were twelve millions. Our

exports to Hawaii have grown from four millions in 1897 to eleven millions in 1903, and our exports to the Philippines from ninety-four thousand dollars in 1897 to four millions in 1903.

There is another hopeful sign for the future of this country in the matter of our foreign trade, and that is the aroused public sentiment and interest in favor of building up our merchant marine. It is a reproach to this nation that while our entire foreign commerce in 1903 aggregated in value two billion four hundred millions of dollars, only two hundred and fourteen millions or nine per cent was carried in American ships. We paid for freighting American commerce, exports and imports, last year one hundred and forty millions of dollars and of this sum only twelve millions was paid to American ship owners. The thirty millions of dollars paid for passenger traffic across the seas went chiefly into the pockets of foreigners. It is a humiliating fact that the flag of our trade is seldom seen in foreign ports.

The Hon. John Barrett, formerly minister to Siam, testified before the shipping commission recently, that in the last ten years, he made three trips around the world and had therefore ample opportunity to judge of the condition of our foreign merchant marine. During this period he was also minister representing the United States at the Argentine Republic and in Siam. The foreign trade of the Argentine Republic last year was three hundred and sixty millions of dollars of which the United States received only twenty-four millions, and he states that there are seven great ship lines to European countries besides large freighters, carrying this immense commerce, while not a single American line enters the Port of Buenos Ayres. In his last journey around the world, he says, passing from San Francisco to Japan, China, India, the Mediterranean and Europe, he did not see in the course of his journey a single merchantman flying the American flag. While minister at Siam for a period of four years, he declares that not one American merchantman entered the Port of Bankok. Today a half dozen great lines of fast steamers are plying between Europe and Eastern Asia and only one line between our western coast and the Orient. The trade of Europe with Asia today is six or seven times greater than it is with the United States. This is ascribable in my judgment to the want of shipping communications with these countries.

Recently we had a protracted controversy whether the flag follows the constitution or the constitution follows the flag, but there is one thing about which there is no contention and that is trade always follows the flag. I have great confidence, therefore, in the future of American commerce. As I said before our domestic commerce is secure. Our foreign trade will certainly be augmented.

At the last session of Congress, a commission of ten persons was appointed charged with the duty of making inquiry into the instrumentality

to be employed in building up our merchant marine. The creation of the Department of Commerce, charged especially with the promotion of our trade and the appropriation of $30,000 to employ agents to visit the South American countries and ascertain their interests are all hopeful signs of an enlarged foreign trade.

Public sentiment is thoroughly aroused upon this subject. I do not propose to discuss the methods by which the merchant marine may be rehabilitated, but that it will be accomplished, I have not the slightest

doubt. The importance of this matter is already recognized. McKinley said upon this subject, "Foreign ships should carry the least and not the greatest part of the American trade. The remarkable growth of our steel industry; the progress of shipbuilding for the domestic trade and our steadily maintained expenditures for the navy have created an opportunity to place the United States in the first rank of commercial maritime powers."