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OF THE

ROYAL

STATISTICAL SOCIETY.

Founded 1834.

Incorporated by Royal Charter 1887.

VOL. LXXI.-PART I.

31ST MARCH, 1908.

LONDON:

THE ROYAL STATISTICAL SOCIETY,

9, ADELPHI TERRACE, STRAND, W.C.

1908.

NOTICE.

THE Council of the Royal Statistical Society wish it to be understood that the Society is not responsible for the statements or opinions expressed in the Papers read before the Society or inserted in its Journal.

JOURNAL

OF THE ROYAL STATISTICAL SOCIETY.

MARCH, 1908.

Some UNCONSIDERED FACTORS affecting the BIRTH-RATE.

By REGINALD DUDFIELD, M.A., M.B.

[Read before the Royal Statistical Society, 21st January, 1908. The Right Hon. Sir CHARLES W. DILKE, President, in the Chair.]

2

IN December, 1905, two papers dealing with the decline in the birthrate were read before this Society. In one, that by Drs. Newsholme and Stevenson,1 standard rates were calculated and corrected rates derived therefrom for a series of years were compared. In the other, that by Mr. Udny Yule, the effect on the birth-rate of the postponement of marriage was discussed. So far as I am aware, no one has estimated the absolute values of the potential fertilities resulting from the alterations in the age-constitution of the married population or of the decrease in the number of legitimate births resulting from "moral restraint." It is with this object in view that I have examined the changes which have taken place in

(i.) the ages of married women;

(ii) the combined ages of married couples returned as living together; and

(iii.) the excess of married women.*

The examination was limited to the fecund

ages.

In selecting the standard fertility rates, I shall be obliged to criticise the data used by Drs. Newsholme and Stevenson. Such criticism is intended, however, only to demonstrate the unsuitability of the Swedish rates for my present purpose, for which I deemed maximum fertility-rates to be necessary. Those authors have shown in their Paper that their results are not affected by changes in the standard rates.

The meaning attached to this phrase will be apparent on perusal of the section headed "Surplus Wives."

VOL. LXXI. PART I.

B

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